2008 Frog NBA Preview - Los Angeles Clippers
The good news from last season:
Chris Kaman took a huge step forward, tallying 15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds (which would have been good for third in the league if he had played in enough games), and 2.8 blocks per game (third in the NBA - no reason why he qualified in one statistic and not another). Rookie Al Thornton showed that he could score in the NBA, averaging 12.7 points per game overall and 16.5 points per game over his final 31 games. Baron Davis signed shortly after free agency opened, and the team traded for Marcus Camby for next to nothing.
The bad news from last season:
Of course, the acquisition of Camby was an easier decision once Elton Brand signed with Philadelphia right after Davis inked a deal to come to his hometown. This came on the heels of Brand missing all but eight games of last season with an Achilles' injury. Even though Kaman put up such great numbers, he still missed 26 games. Injuries riddled the roster, as the team eventually started 15 different players. As a whole, the team was woeful from outside, finishing 28th and 29th in the NBA in three-pointers made and three-point field goal percentage, respectively. The team was also indifferent on defense, finishing 24th in field goal percentage allowed. Throw in that the team was 28th in rebounding differential and it does not take any leaps to understand why the Clips limped to a 23-win season.
The revolving door:
IN: F-C Marcus Camby, G Baron Davis, G Ricky Davis, G Eric Gordon, G Jason Hart, F-C Brian Skinner
OUT: F Elton Brand, G Brevin Knight, F Corey Maggette
Team overview:
The team looks almost nothing like the squad from last year, with at least six new faces who should make the team, and that may or may not be a good thing. The marquee move of the offseason was bringing in Baron Davis from Golden State. Despite the point guard having a fantastic season last year (he was near personal bests in threes, steals and points per game), the signing was a risky one based on Davis' fragile health, having played in every game last year for the first time in six years. Davis will be joined in the backcourt by Cuttino Mobley, whose production has gradually decreased ever since he came to Los Angeles. If Mobley could get back to his career average of 38 percent from deep, it would be a big help. Jason Hart, who is back for his second tour with the Clippers, should back up Davis. Hart was solid in his first stop with the team, starting 22 games late in the 2006-2007 season and averaging 9.0 points per game while carding a 2.74-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Ricky Davis will likely play both swingman spots off the bench. Rookie Eric Gordon injured an ankle early in training camp following a hamstring injury in summer league play, so it is unknown whether he will be able to get into the rotation, at least at the start of the season.
Al Thornton is likely to be the starter at the three as a sophomore with Corey Maggette moving up to Golden State. Thornton has a long way to go on the defensive end, but that does not make him unusual on this roster. Marcus Camby will shift to the power forward spot and join Chris Kaman down low. The two should combine for an effective rebounding, scoring, and shotblocking force. Both players are capable of 15 points and 10 rebounds every night, as well as defending the rim more than capably. Camby played in 79 games last year for Denver and posted a career-high (and league-leading) 3.6 blocks per game, the fifth time in his career he has surpassed the three blocks per game plateau. On offense, Camby should get a significant number of looks for the 18-foot jumper he likes with Kaman operating down low. Kaman, who has an array of post moves, should benefit from not being alone on defense and the boards. Tim Thomas will play some minutes at both forward spots, but coach Mike Dunleavy can feel free to give the gunner a short leash with so many other options. Brian Skinner will be a role player off the bench at power forward with either Camby or Kaman playing next to him. Skinner's toughness and rebounding remain his calling cards after ten years in the league.
Fantasy note:
Chris Kaman will regress significantly. He will see the ball a lot less frequently on offense with the addition of a couple “shoot-first” players (Baron Davis, Ricky Davis) to complement those already on the team (Thornton, Mobley). He also will not be able to wrangle so many rebounds with Camby, who was second in the league in rebounds last year, flanking him. He is still capable of posting averages of 12 points and nine rebounds a game, but expecting more than that is foolish.
Best case scenario:
This group is very talented on offense. They have enough weapons that they should be able to hang with anyone in the league on that end. Dunleavy gets enough effort on defense out of this group that they win 47 games, squeak into the eighth playoff spot, and prove to be a tough out in the first round.
Worst case scenario:
No one plays defense and everything implodes as the players are more concerned about getting shots instead of wins. Baron Davis sours on Dunleavy by the holidays and the team skids to 26 wins.
